In this article, we will discuss the basic principles of Smart Money Concepts in Gold trading.
I will explain to you how Gold price relates to supply and demand on the market. What is a fair value and how to identify it.
We will discuss a relation between a fair value and supply and demand and why is it so important to learn to recognize the imbalance.
Gold Price
First, let's briefly discuss how the price of Gold is valued.
Gold price is determined by the basic economic principles of supply and demand.
Supply is defined by the actions of the sellers and selling volumes.
While a demand is defined by the activity of buyers and the volumes they wish to purchase.
When supply exceeds demand, it leads to a decline in prices.
Increased selling pressure leads to lower prices as sellers compete to attract buyers.
Above, you can see how the excess of demand pushes Gold prices up rapidly.
When demand exceeds supply, we see an increase in the price of the financial asset.
In the example above, you can see how the excess of supply leads to a depreciation of a Gold price.
Imbalance & Fair Value
The excess of supply or demand on the market is also called an imbalance in Smart Money Concept trading SMC.
The imbalance causes strong bullish or bearish movement on the market.
However, such moves do not last forever.
At some moment, reaching a particular price level, the market will stop growing or falling, and the market will find the equilibrium in supply and demand.
Such an equilibrium is also called a fair value in SMC trading.
On the chart above, Gold was growing rapidly. After reaching some price level, the growth stopped and the market found a fair value.
Supply finally absorbed the excess of demand.
Sideways Movement & Range
When the market finds a fair value, it usually starts trading in sideways. The sideways movement forms a horizontal range - a horizontal parallel channel.
Such ranges signify that the market participants agree about a current price of an asset.
Above, you can see that after a strong up movement, Gold found a fair value and a consolidation within a horizontal range started.
Fair Value Range
When you spotted the range, you should remember that the market may stay within that for a very long period of time.
The trigger that will make the market reassess the fair value is typically a some important fundamental factor, the surprising geopolitical or economic event that will create a new imbalance on the market.
A strong signal that the market strives to find a new fair value is the breakout of one of the boundaries of the range. It is a signal of a violation of a current fair value.
You can see that Gold found a fair value and was stuck for quite a long period within a wide horizontal range. Then, because of the release of significant US fundamental news, an imbalance occurred. Fair value range was violated, and the price found a new fair value higher.
Trading Tips
When the imbalance on the market occurs and it violates the fair value, the price tends to find a new fair value around significant liquidity zones.
That is why it is so critical to pay attention to them.
Also, the laws of supply and demand, imbalance and fair value work on any time frame and can be applied for any trading style.
Learn to perceive a price chart from a Supply and Demand perspective in order to master Smart Money Concept trading strategy.
